KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-10-28 05:20Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has dropped significantly, with the wholesale reference price for 2025 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai falling to 1690 yuan, marking a new low since its listing and a cumulative decline of over 31% from its initial price [1][3]. Price Trends - The retail price of Feitian Moutai has shown a consistent downward trend throughout 2025, with significant drops occurring in June and October, including a breach of the 2000 yuan psychological barrier [2][3]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has decreased from 2220 yuan and 2255 yuan at launch to the current levels, indicating a substantial decline in market value [1][2]. Company Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported a total revenue of 91.094 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.16%, while net profit increased by 8.89% to 45.403 billion yuan, both at the lowest growth rates in a decade [3]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.589 billion yuan, with a growth of 10.24%, while the series liquor revenue was 13.763 billion yuan, growing by 4.69%, but both categories experienced a decline in gross margin [3]. Management Changes - The resignation of Chairman Zhang Deqin on October 27 has raised concerns about the strategic continuity of Guizhou Moutai, marking the fourth change in chairmanship within five years [3]. Industry Context - The price decline of Feitian Moutai reflects broader challenges in the Chinese liquor industry, with a reported 5.8% decrease in production among major liquor enterprises in the first half of 2025, marking the eighth consecutive year of decline [3][4]. - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association noted that 60% of liquor companies are experiencing price inversion, with 59.7% reporting reduced operating profits, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [4]. Market Dynamics - The traditional peak consumption seasons have not reversed the market downturn, with sales during the dual festivals (National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival) declining by approximately 20% year-on-year [4][5]. - Despite some recovery in sales post-festivals, the overall market demand remains weak, with many companies actively seeking to clear inventory to maintain healthy channel development [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the adjustment phase in the liquor industry will continue, with expectations of further pressure on third-quarter performance reports [4][6].