南华期货夏莹莹：黄金短期调整属健康蓄力，技术面指向3800—3850美元关键支撑

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are characterized as a healthy correction driven by short-term factors, aimed at building momentum for medium to long-term upward trends, with the underlying bull market foundation remaining intact [2] Group 1: Short-term Driving Factors - The core reason for the recent gold price adjustment is identified as short-term factors rather than a fundamental reversal, including easing pressure in the silver market, a retreat in short-term safe-haven demand, and profit-taking from previous gains [3][4] - The easing of silver market pressures, which previously saw extreme conditions, has led to a corresponding adjustment in gold prices [3] - A decline in short-term safe-haven demand occurred as temporary issues like U.S. government shutdowns and trade uncertainties were resolved, prompting some investors to liquidate gold positions [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Behavior - The current adjustment, with gold prices dropping nearly 10% from approximately 4380 to 4000, is considered a normal occurrence within a bull market, as similar adjustments have been observed historically [4] - Key support levels, such as the 4000 mark, are highlighted as critical for maintaining bullish sentiment, with potential further declines to the 3800-3850 range anticipated for more thorough price correction [5] - The market's behavior indicates that the recent decline is primarily due to profit-taking rather than a significant increase in short positions, as evidenced by stable ETF holdings [5] Group 3: Future Outlook and Trading Strategies - December is projected as a crucial month for gold prices, with seasonal trends and potential signals from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions expected to influence market movements [7] - Investors are advised to manage risks carefully, avoiding common pitfalls such as chasing prices or mixing short-term and long-term positions, emphasizing the importance of clear trading objectives and timelines [7]