SITC(HK:01308) Ge Long Hui·2025-10-28 19:43Company Overview - The company reported Q3 2025 operating data, achieving revenue of $796 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.9% [1] - Container shipping volume reached 920,179 TEU, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.0% [1] - Average freight rate (excluding slot exchange fee revenue) was $712 per TEU, down 12.0% year-on-year and 5.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] Market Commentary - The market for small container ships in the Asian region is expected to remain tight, with attention on the progress of the Red Sea route reopening [1] - According to Clarksons, the annual new supply of small container ships is projected to be only 1-2% over the next three years, with 11.2% of vessels over 25 years old [1] - The tight supply of small ships this year is primarily due to the need for small vessels to support feeder services after the Red Sea detour and increased demand for small ships in long-distance alliances [1] - Alphaliner data indicates that by October 2025, capacity for vessels under 3,000 TEU will have increased by 8.5% compared to the end of 2023, with new capacity mainly in the Middle East, Indian subcontinent, and European routes [1] - Current rental rates for 1,700/2,750 TEU vessels have increased year-on-year by 37.8% and 16.4%, respectively [1] Industry Trends - The trend of industrial transfer under U.S. tariff policies may accelerate, with cargo volumes in the Asian region expected to continue increasing [2] - From January to September 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports between China and ASEAN countries was +9.6% [2] - The ongoing industrial transfer from China to Southeast Asian countries is anticipated to further boost economic growth in these nations, contributing to stable cargo volume growth in the Asian region [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast and industry rating, with the current stock price corresponding to 7.8x and 9.4x P/E ratios for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - The target price remains at HKD 36 per share, corresponding to P/E ratios of 10.0x and 11.9x for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 27.0% from the current stock price [2]