证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 21 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 快递 6 月数据明显分化，关注行业反内卷进程 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 7 月 14 日-2025 年 7 月 20 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）各家快递公司发布 6 月经营业绩，顺丰业务量增速维持 30%+，"通达系"中圆 通增速保持领先。2025 年 6 月圆通/韵达/申通/顺丰完成业务量 26.27 / 21.73 /21 ...

Group 1 - The Invesco Great Wall Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159569) closed down 0.68% on July 15, with a trading volume of 62.97 million yuan [1] - The fund was established on August 14, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.08% [1] - As of July 14, 2024, the fund had 157 million shares and a total size of 207 million yuan, showing a 38.89% increase in shares and a 59.71% increase in size year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The current fund managers are Zhang Xiaonan and Gong Lili, with returns of 35.38% and 34.17% respectively since their management began [2] - The latest report indicates that the top holdings of the fund include Orient Overseas International, Seaspan Corporation, Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Swire Properties B, CNOOC, China Hongqiao Group, Minsheng Bank, Yuehai Investment, CITIC Bank, and Far East Horizon [2] Group 3 - The top holdings and their respective weightings are as follows: - Orient Overseas International: 10.26% - Seaspan Corporation: 5.70% - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company: 3.95% - Swire Properties B: 3.88% - CNOOC: 3.78% - China Hongqiao Group: 3.76% - Minsheng Bank: 3.53% - Yuehai Investment: 3.29% - CITIC Bank: 3.28% - Far East Horizon: 3.27% [3]

据海关统计，今年上半年我国货物贸易进出口总值21.79万亿元，同比增长2.9%，其中出口13万亿元， 同比增长7.2%，进口8.79万亿元,同比下降2.7%。二季度单季进出口增速升至4.5%，比一季度加快3.2个 百分点，已连续七个季度保持同比增长；进入6月，进出口规模达3.85万亿元，同比增长5.2%，其中出 口2.34万亿元，同比增长7.2%，进口1.51万亿元，同比增长2.3%。 我国外贸的强劲韧性与活力，直接转化为航运市场的需求增量，港股航运与港口板块自4月以来应声走 强。智通财经APP注意到，中远海控（01919）、海丰国际（01308）、德翔海运（02510）自4月低点至 阶段高点，最大涨幅分别达到35.4%、82.9%、233%。此外，中远海能（01138）、太平洋航运 （02343）、东方海外国际（00316）等个股4月以来亦有显著涨幅。 然而，与南向资金的积极"护盘"形成鲜明对比的是，空方力量也在暗流涌动。智通财经APP数据显示， 2025年5月14日，中远海控出现市值高达7.55亿港元的转仓，占比1.88%。转出席位为港股通（沪），转 入席位为香港上海汇丰银行。 截至7月11日的近10个交 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Zhonggu Logistics, Haifeng International, and Dexiang Shipping, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the transportation industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Jinjiang Shipping's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be between 780 million to 810 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 145.86% to 155.32% [3]. - The strong performance in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia markets is driving the company's growth, with a focus on enhancing its competitive advantage in these regions [3]. - The report notes that the CCFI index for the China-Japan route increased by 29% year-on-year, while the China-Southeast Asia route saw a 28% increase, outperforming the overall CCFI index which declined by 8% [3]. - The emergence of the Twin Star Alliance is shifting shipping routes from pendulum to radial patterns, leading to increased demand for smaller vessels and driving up charter rates [3]. - The report indicates that the demand for shipping from Southeast Asia remains strong, with a 13.5% year-on-year increase in exports from China to ASEAN countries in the first five months of the year [3]. - The supply side is constrained by limited orders for smaller vessels, with only 5.3% of the fleet under 3k TEU currently on order, while older vessels are being retired due to age [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Jinjiang Shipping's net profit for Q2 2025 is projected to be between 420 million to 450 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 119% to 135% [3]. - The report emphasizes the robust performance of the shipping industry in the Asian region, particularly in container shipping [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the significant increase in shipping rates, with charter rates for 2000 TEU vessels rising by 20% since the beginning of the year, reaching 28,800 USD per day [3]. - The report also highlights the aging fleet issue, with 25% of vessels under 3k TEU being over 20 years old, which is expected to impact future supply [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests continued attention to Haifeng International, Dexiang Shipping, and Zhonggu Logistics, as they are expected to benefit from the industry's upward trends in volume and pricing [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 5% of the country's physical network retail sales [2][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from bulk purchasing to "small quantity, multiple times" is driven by smaller family structures and a faster-paced lifestyle, which enhances the demand for instant retail [5][23] - Instant retail is anticipated to drive growth in instant logistics, benefiting companies like SF Holding, and the deployment of smart delivery lockers is also expected to gain traction [2][5] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like JD and Alibaba investing heavily in this sector [15][19] - The transition from distant e-commerce to near-field retail reflects a strong consumer demand for instant gratification [16][23] Opportunities in Transportation and Logistics - The growth of instant retail is expected to stimulate the logistics sector, with a projected increase in online takeaway market size to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by 2025, representing about 30% of China's dining consumption [43][48] - Instant delivery orders are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, reaching 48.3 billion orders in 2024, driven by the expansion of flash warehouses and the need for efficient delivery solutions [49][52] Travel Chain Insights - Domestic passenger volume is showing a stable increase, with a 4% year-on-year rise in the week of July 11, while international passenger volume increased by 16% [64] - The average domestic ticket price has seen a slight decline of 6.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on short-term revenues despite improving demand [62][64] Maritime and Logistics Developments - The maritime sector is witnessing a rebound, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 9.7% to $27,000 per day, driven by active cargo demand in the Middle East [29][30] - The logistics sector is focusing on addressing "involution" in the express delivery market, with a 16.6% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust industry growth [6][20]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the investment strategy for the shipping industry in the second half of 2025 will focus on cash flow and supply factors due to significant uncertainties in shipping demand caused by frequent tariff policy adjustments [4][7][24] - The shipping sector's investment logic includes: 1) Tight supply in the industry and strong cash flow for near-sea and domestic shipping; 2) Low supply growth with potential marginal changes in demand for oil and bulk shipping [4][7][24] Container Shipping: Tariff Policy Disruptions - In the first half of 2025, the container shipping market faced fluctuations, with pressure on freight rates in Q1 and underwhelming demand post-tariff reductions in Q2 [8][29] - The report notes that the delivery of new ships is expected to reach historical highs, leading to significant supply pressure in the long-distance shipping sector [8][29] - The report highlights that the near-sea shipping market remains favorable due to limited new supply of feeder vessels and ongoing improvements in domestic shipping [8][29] Oil Tankers: Bullish Options Amid Weak Realities - The oil tanker sector is experiencing a lack of improvement in downstream demand, with low operating rates for refineries in China [9][61] - The report indicates that OPEC+ has begun to increase production, which could lead to an upward shift in the demand curve for oil transportation [9][63] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the recent Israel-Iran conflict, are expected to benefit oil shipping due to increased volatility [9][63] Dry Bulk: Weak Supply and Demand - The dry bulk shipping market has seen a decline in freight rates due to disruptions in the shipment of bauxite and iron ore [10][34] - The report anticipates that the commissioning of the West Manganese project by the end of the year will positively impact the demand for Capesize vessels [10][34] Investment Perspective - The report suggests that the near-sea and domestic shipping sectors are positioned for higher profitability due to tight supply and strong cash flow among leading shipping companies [8][58] - The potential implementation of the U.S. 301 tariff measures could further increase demand for feeder vessels, as it would raise operational costs for Chinese shipping companies [51][58]

Group 1 - The Cathay Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index Fund (QDII) C has experienced a decline of 0.07% on July 1, with a latest net value of 1.13 yuan, marking a continuous drop for five trading days and a cumulative decline of 1.8% over the period [1] - The fund was established on January 1, 2025, with an initial scale of 0.06 billion yuan and has achieved a cumulative return of 13.34% since its inception [1] Group 2 - Current fund manager Zhang Jing holds a bachelor's degree in finance from the University of International Business and Economics and an MBA from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, with extensive international experience in asset management [2] - The other fund manager, Deng Yakun, has a master's degree in computational finance from Carnegie Mellon University and has been with Cathay Securities since March 2021, focusing on quantitative investment [2] Group 3 - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten holdings of the Cathay Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index Fund (QDII) C account for a total of 44.28%, with significant positions in COSCO Shipping Holdings (9.76%), Yancoal Australia (5.88%), and Orient Overseas International (3.94%) among others [3]

港股研究丨公司深度丨海丰国际（1308.HK） [Table_Title] 海陆一体，时和岁丰 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 海丰国际是专注于亚洲区域内集运市场的龙头。亚洲内集运需求过去几年增速高于行业。其中， 日韩航线成熟稳定；东南亚市场是增量，有望持续受益于产业转移和区域内贸易增长。亚洲内 市场主流船型为 3,000TEU 的支线船，这个市场的玩家以服务差异化主导而不是拼规模，因此 在手订单较低，2025-2026 年运力增速预计为 0.6%和-3.0%。此外，联盟重组及后续 301 调查 若落地，将进一步提振支线船需求。长期看，公司业绩穿越周期，核心竞争力为：1）高频高密 度的海陆一体运营模式；2）低成本策略，且公司注重股东回报。首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 海丰国际（1308.HK） c ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates stable cargo volume growth in the Asian region, driven by tariff policy changes and industry restructuring, which will enhance long-term potential for cargo flow [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Market Dynamics - Since April, tariff policies have fluctuated, but cargo volume in the Asian region has shown resilience, with expectations of stable performance in April and May [1]. - The easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. in mid-May led to a surge in shipping demand, resulting in a significant increase in freight rates for routes to the U.S. [2]. - In May, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 18.4% month-on-month, with specific routes to the U.S. experiencing increases of 47.6% and 30.1% for West and East Coast respectively [2]. Group 2: Regional Market Performance - The Southeast Asian market has benefited from industry restructuring, with cargo volume rebounding after initial disruptions, showing a week-on-week increase since April 10 [1]. - The average container freight index for Southeast Asia showed a month-on-month increase of 6.9% in April and a decrease of 6.1% in May, with year-on-year increases of 60.1% and 2.3% respectively [1]. Group 3: Shipping Capacity and Rental Trends - There is a tightening of capacity for small and medium-sized container ships, leading to rising rental prices, with a year-on-year increase of 78.9% for 1,000 TEU container ships in the first four months of 2025 [2]. - As of May, new container ship orders accounted for 29.4% of existing capacity, with a low order ratio for small and medium-sized vessels [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company expects continued high demand and rising freight rates in June, supported by seasonal factors and tariff easing [3]. - Long-term growth is anticipated due to the company's focus on the Asian market and the flexibility of small vessel operations, enhancing competitive strength [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the company are set at $1.09 billion, $910 million, and $1.1 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price of 28.0 HKD based on a PE ratio of 8.9x for 2025 [3].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Hai Feng International is positioned as a leading integrated shipping logistics service provider in Asia, leveraging both maritime and land logistics to connect inland and port logistics, with a focus on point-to-point direct shipping services [1][2] - Operational model: The company operates 78 trade routes, covering 17 countries and regions, and 81 major ports, with a planned increase in weekly port calls to 483 by 2024 [1] - Fleet and capacity: As of December 31, 2024, the company operates 114 vessels, including 100 owned ships, with a total capacity of 180,255 TEU, ranking 15th globally and 9th among Asian intra-regional shipping companies [1] Group 2 - Financial performance: Hai Feng International has maintained profitability and stable dividends since its listing in 2010, achieving 14 consecutive years of profit and a dividend payout ratio exceeding 70% over the past eight years, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 84.91% in 2024 [1][2] - Market outlook: The Asian shipping market is expected to benefit from supply chain decentralization and structural capacity shortages, with trade volumes steadily increasing since 2023, supported by the RCEP agreement and shifts in supply chains due to geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Profit forecast: The company is projected to achieve net profits of $1.025 billion, $1.031 billion, and $1.072 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -0.29%, 0.54%, and 3.95% respectively, leading to a favorable PE ratio [2]