美联储会缓解流动性压力吗？结束缩表不等于解除压力

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley strategists highlight that even after the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Federal Reserve may still need to implement additional liquidity measures to alleviate potential pressures in the financial system [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve has seen over $2 trillion in funds leave the financial system since initiating balance sheet reduction in June 2022, leading to tight interbank liquidity and rising short-term interest rates [1]. - Market observers suggest that the current situation is reminiscent of 2019, when the New York Fed injected approximately $500 billion in short-term liquidity through large-scale repurchase operations after the end of QT [2]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the Federal Reserve may again resort to similar measures, including temporary open market operations and lowering key liquidity support tool rates to ease financing pressures during critical settlement periods [2]. Group 2: Liquidity Management Tools - The Federal Reserve may consider lowering the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) rate, which is a crucial tool for qualified institutions to obtain cash through collateralized government and agency securities [3]. - This action could not only reduce overnight repo rates (SOFR) and tri-party repo rates (TGCR) but also encourage dealers to use the SRF more flexibly, transforming it from a "backup facility" into a daily liquidity management tool [3]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Predictions - The issuance of a large volume of short-term Treasury securities by the U.S. Treasury continues to absorb market liquidity, exacerbating rising interbank financing costs [4]. - The Federal Reserve's reserves fell below $3 trillion earlier this month, indicating tightening cash levels within the financial system [4]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve may initiate a monthly purchase plan of approximately $8 billion in short-term Treasury securities by early 2026 to enhance cash levels in the financial system [4]. - The current market conditions, while similar to 2019, exhibit key differences such as lower volatility in the money market and a more developed set of liquidity support tools established by the Federal Reserve [4].