KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-10-29 23:08Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai is experiencing a significant decline, with the wholesale reference price for the 53-degree 500ml flying Moutai dropping below 1700 yuan for the first time, reflecting a broader adjustment in the liquor industry [1][3]. Price Trends - The price of flying Moutai has decreased over 30% compared to its peak of 3000 yuan in 2021, with a drop of over 500 yuan in less than a year [3]. - In 2025, the retail price of flying Moutai showed a clear downward trend, breaking key psychological price points of 2000 yuan, 1900 yuan, and 1800 yuan within a short period [3]. Demand Factors - A reduction in consumer demand is the primary reason for the price drop, with high-end dining scenarios seeing a 22% year-on-year decline in wine opening rates and a 30% cut in corporate banquet budgets [5]. - The introduction of stricter regulations on government dining, such as the prohibition of alcohol in work meals, has further impacted market sentiment despite government consumption accounting for less than 1% of total Moutai consumption [7]. Changing Consumer Demographics - The traditional consumer base of Moutai, primarily older generations, is aging, while younger consumers (Z generation) show a decreasing interest in high-alcohol spirits, favoring lower-alcohol and flavored beverages [9]. - The market share of low-alcohol and pre-mixed drinks has increased from 5% in 2020 to 22% in 2025, with only 13% of young consumers choosing Moutai [9]. Supply and Inventory Issues - There is a significant supply-demand imbalance, with an estimated 150 million bottles of Moutai in social inventory, 60% of which are unopened, leading to selling pressure [11]. - The average inventory turnover days for the industry have surged by 10% year-on-year, reaching a record high of 900 days, indicating ongoing inventory accumulation [11]. E-commerce Impact - The entry of e-commerce platforms has drastically changed the sales landscape for Moutai, with platforms like Pinduoduo offering prices as low as 1700 yuan per bottle, challenging traditional distribution channels [13]. - E-commerce platforms can afford to sell at lower prices due to their capital backing, while traditional distributors face significant inventory and cash flow pressures [13]. Company Strategies - Moutai is actively expanding its online sales channels, with direct sales revenue increasing from 5.94% in 2018 to 45.16% in the first quarter of 2025 [15]. - In response to the price decline, Moutai's management aims to maintain prices above 1800 yuan and is diversifying its product offerings to alleviate market pressure [17].