罕见！近乎零增长，茅台也卖不动了？

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 2025 financial report shows a significant slowdown in growth, with revenue and net profit growth rates dropping to near zero, raising concerns about the company's ability to meet its annual targets [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Guizhou Moutai achieved revenue of 128.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, up 6.25% [1][2]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 39.06 billion yuan, reflecting a mere 0.56% growth year-on-year, while net profit was 19.22 billion yuan, up only 0.48% [3][4]. Growth Trends - The company's growth has been declining over the quarters, with Q1 and Q2 showing revenue growth rates of 10.67% and 7.26%, respectively, and net profit growth rates of 11.56% and 5.25% [3][4]. - The last time Guizhou Moutai reported such low growth figures was 11 years ago, in 2014, during a period of industry challenges [3][5]. Market Conditions - The price of Moutai liquor has also seen a significant decline, with the wholesale price of the 53-degree 500ml Moutai bottle dropping below 1,700 yuan, down from a peak of around 3,100 yuan in 2021 [8]. - The company's contract liabilities, which represent prepayments from distributors, decreased to 7.75 billion yuan, down approximately 23% from 9.93 billion yuan in the previous year [5][6]. Profitability Indicators - Despite the slowdown, Guizhou Moutai maintains a high gross margin of 91.28%, although concerns arise if prices continue to fall below the factory price of 1,499 yuan per bottle [9]. - The company's direct sales revenue reached 55.56 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 43.26% of total revenue, indicating a slight increase in direct sales strategy effectiveness [9][10]. Leadership Changes - Guizhou Moutai is undergoing a leadership transition, with Chen Hua, the director of the Guizhou Provincial Energy Bureau, set to replace Zhang Deqin as chairman [10][11]. - The new leadership's approach to stabilizing the declining Moutai liquor prices and continuing the direct sales strategy will be closely monitored by investors [11].