美联储降息但放鹰，华尔街预期遭“逆转”

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is moving towards normalizing its monetary policy by potentially halting the reduction of its balance sheet and adjusting interest rates in response to economic conditions and inflation trends [1][2][3][4][5]. Interest Rate Adjustments - The Federal Reserve has outlined a series of interest rate cuts, with a reduction of 50 basis points on September 19, 2024, followed by two 25 basis point cuts in November and December, bringing the target rate down to 4.25%-4.50% by the end of 2024 [1]. - The anticipated path for interest rates includes further cuts in 2025, with projections indicating a potential target range of 3.75%-4.00% by October 2025 [1]. Balance Sheet Normalization - The Fed's balance sheet, which expanded significantly during the pandemic, is expected to stabilize as the central bank ceases the reduction of its securities holdings starting December 1, 2024 [3][4]. - Over the past three and a half years, the Fed has reduced its securities holdings by $2.2 trillion, decreasing the balance sheet's proportion of nominal GDP from 35% to approximately 21% [4]. Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Recent data suggests that while the job market is cooling, inflation remains relatively high, prompting the Fed to adjust its policy stance [3][5]. - Market expectations shifted dramatically following the Fed's announcements, with the likelihood of maintaining rates at 3.75%-4.00% rising significantly, while the probability of further rate cuts dropped to zero [6]. Capital Market Responses - Following the Fed's rate cuts, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Bank of Canada also announced similar reductions in their interest rates, indicating a synchronized approach to monetary policy adjustments [8]. - The U.S. stock market initially reacted positively to the Fed's announcements, with major indices experiencing fluctuations, while individual stocks like Nvidia and Apple saw significant market capitalization changes [13].