猪价反弹、产能调控，猪周期新走向引关注

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that pig prices have rebounded recently, with an average price of 12.51 yuan/kg as of October 30, which is an increase of 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous day and approximately 1.5 yuan/kg higher than the lowest point in mid-October [1] - Short-term price increases are driven by seasonal consumption recovery and heightened sentiment for secondary fattening, while rising prices will increase the costs of secondary fattening, necessitating attention to the sustainability of this trend [1] - Long-term expectations indicate a downward shift in recent pig price levels, with deepening breeding losses and the advancement of capacity regulation policies, which are expected to enhance the outlook for long-term price stabilization [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has recently reiterated the need to strengthen the regulation of pig production capacity, with the number of breeding sows recorded at 40.35 million as of the end of September, a decrease of 450,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] - Policy regulations regarding production capacity, slaughter weight, and environmental funding are being fully implemented, with leading companies responding positively; for instance, Muyuan Foods reported a breeding sow inventory of 3.305 million at the end of September, a reduction of 126,000 from the end of June [2] - The expectation for future market cycles indicates that capacity regulation will remain a central theme for some time, with an anticipated increase in the elimination of outdated capacity and a further emphasis on the cost advantages of high-quality production capacity, leading to better profit elasticity post-regulation [2]