黄金究竟值多少钱？别瞎猜了，“底价+上限”都算出来了

Core Insights - The article discusses the disconnection between gold prices and the real interest rates of the US dollar, highlighting that traditional valuation models struggle to price gold due to its non-cash flow nature [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Pricing Dynamics - Gold's "bottom price" is estimated at $1,600 per ounce, reflecting the cost of extraction and refining, which is influenced by various factors including mining quality and local operational costs [5][14]. - The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) is a key metric for the gold industry, providing a comprehensive view of the costs required to maintain existing gold mines, with the latest data showing a global average AISC of $1,456 per ounce [6][9]. - The AISC is expected to rise, with projections for major gold mining companies estimating AISC between $1,350 and $1,650 per ounce for 2025 [9]. Group 2: Hidden Costs and Industry Standards - The introduction of AISC by the World Gold Council in 2013 aimed to restore investor confidence by providing a more accurate representation of mining costs, addressing the shortcomings of the previous cash cost metric [8]. - The total cost (All-In Costs, AIC) includes AISC plus additional capital expenditures related to growth, such as developing new mines and exploration activities [9][13]. - The estimated AIC is approximately AISC plus $50 per ounce, accounting for the costs of unsuccessful explorations and new discoveries [12][13]. Group 3: Gold Supply and Wealth Comparison - As of the end of 2024, the total above-ground gold stock is approximately 216,265 tons, while the estimated global wealth is around $500 trillion [20][22]. - Based on different methodologies, the implied gold price could range from $40,000 to $70,000 per ounce when comparing gold supply to global wealth [25][26]. - A more practical upper limit for gold pricing is suggested to be around $5,000 per ounce, considering the current economic conditions and the dynamics of gold as a stable value reference [35].