股价飙升30%后迎财报大考，iPhone 17“超级周期”能否助力苹果(AAPL.US)继续涨？

Core Viewpoint - Apple's stock has shown strong performance in recent months, driven by optimism surrounding iPhone sales, with investors awaiting the upcoming earnings report to validate this enthusiasm [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Since early August, Apple's stock price has increased by over 30%, with its market capitalization rising from $3 trillion to $4 trillion [1] - The strong sales of the iPhone 17 series, which saw a 14% increase in sales compared to the iPhone 16 in the first 10 days of launch in the U.S. and China, have bolstered investor confidence [1] - Analysts have raised their earnings expectations for Apple by 7% and revenue expectations by 4.3% over the past three months, indicating a belief in potential earnings exceeding forecasts [1] Group 2: Future Growth Drivers - The current growth phase may be a precursor to significant future developments, including foldable iPhones and enhanced AI capabilities [4] - The growth drivers for Apple are identified as old device upgrades, price increases, and the upcoming AI features, suggesting a longer growth runway than previously anticipated [4] Group 3: Performance Context and Comparisons - Despite recent gains, Apple's stock has only risen 7.7% year-to-date in 2025, underperforming the Nasdaq 100 index, which has increased by 24% [4] - If Apple's performance exceeds expectations, it could attract more investors, especially given its recent underperformance compared to peers [5] - Apple's valuation is currently high, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 33 times expected earnings, significantly above its 10-year average of 22 times, making it one of the most expensive stocks among major tech companies [5][6] Group 4: Growth Projections - Apple's revenue growth is projected at 6.2% for the last fiscal year and is expected to maintain this rate into the 2026 fiscal year, lagging behind the tech sector's anticipated growth rates of over 14% in 2025 and 13.6% in 2026 [6] - The high expectations for Apple's performance necessitate a belief that these expectations are justified for continued stock price increases [6]