Anjoy food(SH:603345) Ge Long Hui·2025-10-30 17:57Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight beat in 3Q25 earnings, with revenue and net profit showing positive year-on-year growth, driven by reduced expenses and strategic product performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - 3Q25 revenue reached 3.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.61% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 273 million yuan, up 11.80% year-on-year - Deducted non-recurring gains, net profit was 264 million yuan, reflecting a 15.27% increase year-on-year [1] - The contribution from the consolidation of Dingwei Thai was approximately 156 million yuan, with core business performance showing a 2.2% year-on-year growth after excluding this factor [1] Product and Market Dynamics - The company experienced mixed performance in its product categories, with frozen prepared foods and rice products declining by 0.5% and 9.1% respectively, while dish products grew by 8.8% year-on-year [1] - Strategic focus on major products helped offset declines in traditional items, with notable performance in the volcanic stone grilled sausage [1] - The company actively engaged in customized offerings for supermarkets, achieving 220 million yuan in revenue from this channel in Q3, a 28.1% year-on-year increase [1] Cost and Profitability - Despite rising procurement costs for fresh fish, the gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points due to a decrease in the sales proportion of crayfish [2] - Selling expense ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to stable promotional efforts and improved expense-to-sales ratio [2] - Management expense ratio fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, due to reduced share-based payment expenses [2] - The net profit margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 7.3% in 3Q25 [2] Industry Outlook - The demand and competition landscape indicates that the fundamentals have bottomed out, with expectations for recovery in the restaurant sector and improvement in core business [2] - Traditional business remains under pressure, but there are signs of sequential improvement [2] - Major players in the frozen food industry reported that promotional efforts in the B2B sector have not intensified, leading to a shift towards seeking new channel growth [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 2.5% and 3.4% to 15.66 billion yuan and 16.76 billion yuan respectively [2] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 has been reduced by 3.5% to 1.35 billion yuan, while the 2026 forecast remains at 1.54 billion yuan [2] - The current stock price trades at 18.1 and 15.8 times P/E for 2025 and 2026, with a target price maintained at 84.0 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price [2]