Core Viewpoint - The company reported its H1 2025 performance, showing a revenue of 7.52 billion yuan (+4.8% YoY), EBITDA of 2.75 billion yuan (+23.3%), and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.89 billion yuan (+27.0%) [1] Revenue Breakdown - The intermediate products business generated external revenue of 1.01 billion yuan (-23.1%) with a segment profit of 630 million yuan, resulting in a profit margin of 27.5% (-7.2 percentage points) [1] - The active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) segment reported external revenue of 2.53 billion yuan (-27.0%) and a segment profit of 250 million yuan, maintaining a profit margin of 27.5% (-4.9 percentage points) [1] - The formulation segment achieved external revenue of 2.54 billion yuan (+6.1%) with a segment profit of 160 million yuan, leading to a profit margin of 6.1% (-4.0 percentage points) [1] - Licensing revenue amounted to 1.43 billion yuan, primarily from the UBT251 licensing fee from Novo Nordisk [1] Business Performance - In the formulation business, human antibiotic product revenue was 890 million yuan (-12.1%), mainly impacted by centralized procurement and demand decline [2] - The animal health business generated revenue of 560 million yuan (-15.9%), with potential for rapid growth due to new base construction and overseas registration [2] - Insulin formulation revenue reached 960 million yuan (+74.5%), with second-generation insulin contributing 460 million yuan (+110.2%), and glargine insulin at 290 million yuan (+33.7%) [2] - The sales volume of insulin analogs increased by 90.4%, benefiting from the renewal of centralized procurement and orders from the Brazilian Ministry of Health [2] R&D Focus and Pipeline - The company is focusing its R&D on endocrine/metabolic and autoimmune fields, expecting to enter a harvest period starting in 2026 [3] - R&D investment in H1 2025 was 550 million yuan (+14.9%), with the domestic approval of liraglutide in March [3] - The new drug UBT251 targeting GLP-1/GIP/GCG has been licensed to Novo Nordisk, with ongoing clinical trials for weight loss and glycemic control [3] - The neuropeptide Y2 receptor agonist UBT37034 received clinical approval in the U.S. for weight loss indications, showing significant effects in animal trials [3] - The small molecule GLP-1 drug UBT48128 is expected to submit IND applications in mid-2026, with preclinical data indicating better weight loss effects than Eli Lilly's Orforglipron [3] - The company has a rich pipeline, anticipating six new products or indications to be approved in 2026 and 2027, with further approvals expected post-2030 [3] Investment Recommendation - The company is recognized as a leading comprehensive pharmaceutical enterprise, extending its business into biopharmaceuticals and animal health, with an R&D layout entering a harvest phase [3] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.42 billion yuan, 12.65 billion yuan, and 13.84 billion yuan, reflecting YoY growth rates of -2.5%, -5.7%, and +9.4% respectively [3] - Expected net profits attributable to shareholders for the same years are 2.36 billion yuan, 2.02 billion yuan, and 2.41 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of -11.4%, -14.2%, and +19.4% respectively [3] - Corresponding PE ratios (using an exchange rate of 1 HKD = 0.92 RMB) are projected at 10, 12, and 10 times, with an initial coverage rating of "Buy" [3]
联邦制药(3933.HK)：BD首付贡献业绩 期待传统业务回暖