天风证券：美国12月降息25bp、明年继续降息3次左右或仍是基准情形

Core Viewpoint - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and continue to do so approximately three more times next year, despite recent hawkish comments from Powell [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls have shown weak performance over the last four months, with potential marginal improvement expected after the government reopens, but strong growth is unlikely [1] - Inflation is likely to remain moderate [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The impact of Powell's hawkish remarks is expected to be temporary, with a return to a rate-cutting cycle anticipated [1] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to continue in a downward trend, and the U.S. dollar is likely to weaken [1] - Gold prices are expected to recover after a pullback, benefiting from the advancing rate-cutting cycle, which is favorable for both emerging market equities and bonds [1] Group 3: Alternative Scenarios - In a low-probability scenario where the Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts in December and struggles to implement cuts by 2026, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar may remain elevated, putting pressure on gold prices and U.S. equities, as well as increasing stress on emerging market assets [1]