马斯克会被朱晓彤替代吗?

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's chairman, Robyn Denholm, indicated that if shareholders reject Elon Musk's high compensation plan, the company is prepared with a "Plan B" for a potential internal successor, with Zhu Xiaotong frequently mentioned as a candidate [1][15]. Financial Performance - Tesla's financial performance has declined, with a 37% year-over-year drop in net profit for Q3 2025, a gross margin decrease to 15.4%, and a 40% decline in net profit for 2024 compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit for 2023 also saw a 16% decrease, leading to growing dissatisfaction among shareholders [1]. Compensation Plan - Musk's proposed compensation plan includes up to 423.7 million restricted shares, approximately 12% of the adjusted total shares, to be distributed in 12 tranches based on performance milestones [7]. - If fully realized, the plan could be valued at around $186.47 billion based on the stock price of $440.1 on October 31, 2025, requiring Tesla's market cap to increase from approximately $1.09 trillion to at least $8.5 trillion over ten years [7]. Shareholder Opposition - Significant opposition to Musk's compensation plan has emerged, with top advisory firm ISS recommending shareholders vote against it due to concerns over the board's independence and the potential dilution of existing shareholder equity [7][8]. - A coalition of large public pension funds has also urged shareholders to reject the plan and remove board members, citing Tesla's declining performance and increased competition in the electric vehicle market [8][9]. Zhu Xiaotong's Role - Zhu Xiaotong, Tesla's Senior Vice President and President of Greater China, has been recognized for his leadership in establishing the Shanghai Gigafactory, which achieved production in just over five months [11]. - Under Zhu's management, the Shanghai factory produced 957,000 vehicles in 2023, contributing 24% of Tesla's global revenue, showcasing his effectiveness in executing Tesla's localization strategy in China [12]. Leadership Transition Risks - The potential rejection of Musk's compensation plan raises concerns about his possible departure from Tesla, which could lead to strategic shifts and impact ongoing projects in AI and autonomous driving [14][15]. - The board has expressed confidence in Musk's ability to drive growth, denying any active search for a successor, but the uncertainty surrounding the compensation plan could affect investor confidence and Tesla's market valuation [15].