Core Viewpoint - Huaxing Securities maintains a "Hold" rating on Xiaobuxiang (00520) with a target price of HKD 1.00, corresponding to 0.2 times the 2026 P/S ratio [1] Financial Projections - The company is expected to see revenue changes from 2025 to 2027 with a decline of 15.0% in 2025, followed by growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, reaching revenues of CNY 4.04 billion, CNY 4.16 billion, and CNY 4.25 billion respectively [1] - Projected net losses attributable to shareholders are CNY 145 million in 2025 and CNY 66 million in 2026, with a small net profit of approximately CNY 240 thousand anticipated in 2027 [1] Store Count Analysis - The number of Xiaobuxiang brand stores peaked at 1,061 in 2020 and has since been declining, expected to bottom out at 760 stores in 2024, with a slight increase to 763 stores in the first half of 2025 [1] - The Coucou brand reached a peak of 257 stores in 2023 but began to decline, with projections showing a reduction to 197 stores in 2024 and further down to 174 stores in the first half of 2025 [1] Investment Opportunities - The company suggests that if the number of Xiaobuxiang stores continues to increase or stabilizes at the first half of 2025 levels, it may indicate that a phase of adjustment has been completed, warranting attention to future developments [1] - The Coucou brand's store count has not yet reached its bottom, and monitoring its recovery could signal improvements in the company's fundamentals, historically indicating a higher probability of marginal improvement rather than continued decline [1]
华兴证券：维持呷哺呷哺“持有”评级 目标价1港元