中泰国际:上调中集安瑞科评级至“增持” 目标价升至8.6港元

Core Viewpoint - The company has raised its FY25-27 net profit forecast for shareholders by 1.9%, 1.2%, and 2.1% respectively, and increased the target price from HKD 7.40 to HKD 8.60, reflecting a 10.4% upside potential based on an FY26 P/E ratio of 11.5 times, while also indicating a decrease in capital market risks [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of FY25, the net profit for shareholders increased by 12.2% year-on-year [2] - Total revenue and net profit for shareholders grew by 7.7% and 12.9% year-on-year to RMB 19.35 billion and RMB 770 million respectively [2] - Despite declines in the chemical and liquid food sectors, the clean energy sector saw a revenue increase of 19.4% year-on-year to RMB 15.04 billion, with the marine clean energy segment experiencing a significant growth of 64.4% to RMB 4.81 billion [2] Group 2: Order Growth - New orders in Q3 FY25 surged by 104.1% year-on-year to RMB 8.91 billion, with the clean energy sector orders rising by 147.7% to RMB 8.03 billion [3] - Notable contracts include the construction of dual-fuel LPG/ammonia transport vessels and LNG bunkering vessels with various international partners [3] - As of September 30, the total order backlog reached RMB 30.76 billion, a 10.9% increase year-on-year, with the clean energy segment accounting for RMB 27.34 billion, up 23.6% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Project Developments - The Guangdong Zhanjiang green methanol project, with an annual capacity of 50,000 tons, is set to commence production in Q4 FY25 to meet the demand for green fuel in shipping [4] - Despite a delay in the International Maritime Organization's decision on the net-zero emissions framework, the trend towards green fuel usage remains unchanged [4] - Global demand for marine methanol is projected to be between 1 million to 2 million tons this year, surpassing the global production capacity of 720,000 tons [4]