三季度又亏了近一个亿，一瓶不到20元的牛栏山也卖不动了？

Core Viewpoint - Shunxin Agriculture is facing significant financial challenges, with a sharp decline in revenue and profits, raising concerns about its ability to reverse a five-year trend of declining sales [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Shunxin Agriculture reported revenue of 5.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%, and a net profit of 76.98 million yuan, down 79.9% [1] - The company's revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was 1.28 billion yuan, a decline of 21.7% year-on-year, with net losses expanding from 40.51 million yuan to 95.90 million yuan [2] - Cumulatively, the losses from the second and third quarters are nearing the profits made in the first quarter, which was the only profitable quarter of the year [2] Industry Context - The decline in Shunxin Agriculture's performance is primarily attributed to the underperformance of its white liquor business, which accounts for nearly 80% of its revenue [3] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a shift from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation," with increasing competition and changing consumer habits [3] - The market for light bottle liquor, where Shunxin's main products are positioned, has become highly competitive, with new entrants impacting market share [3] Consumer Behavior - The overall consumption environment is challenging, with insufficient purchasing power among low-income groups leading to consumption tightening and downgrading [5] - The reliance on dining and immediate consumption scenarios for over 70% of revenue is problematic, as the recovery of the dining sector remains slow [5] - The ongoing "ban on alcohol" and reduced social gatherings have further diminished key consumption scenarios, impacting sales despite the low-cost nature of the products [5]