关税影响将加速显现：美国假日购物季价格恐全面上涨

Core Insights - The impact of Trump's tariffs has been minimal so far, but it is expected to become more pronounced during the upcoming holiday shopping season as consumers will start to feel the price increases [1] - Economists predict that common inflation indicators like CPI and PCE will not see significant spikes, but tariffs will keep these indicators elevated during periods when they would typically decline [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Bank of America economists assert that tariffs have indeed raised consumer prices, despite initial minimal effects due to companies stockpiling goods and absorbing some costs [2] - The tariffs are projected to increase the core PCE index by approximately 0.5%, with September's inflation rate estimated at 2.9% under tariffs, compared to 2.4% without them [2] - The Federal Reserve aims to maintain core inflation at 2%, but this target has been exceeded since March 2021, complicating monetary policy decisions [2] Group 2: Consumer Experience and Price Sensitivity - Real-life inflation is reflected in rising prices of everyday items like coffee, furniture, and clothing, with clothing prices increasing by 0.7% in September [3] - Certain goods, despite having a small weight in the CPI, can disproportionately affect consumer confidence and perceptions of inflation, creating a feedback loop that further drives prices up [4] - Seasonal items, such as artificial Christmas trees imported from China, are expected to see significant price increases due to tariffs, impacting consumer sentiment during the holiday season [5]