Core Insights - The company expects a 50.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by underwriting profits and investment income, with a continued improvement in the combined ratio (COR) [1][2] - The target price is set at HKD 22.82, maintaining a P/B ratio of 1.6 for 2025, with EPS forecasts of 2.14, 2.40, and 2.55 for 2025-2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of CNY 14.865 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a 130.7% increase year-on-year, and total investment income of CNY 35.9 billion, up 33.0% [1] - The company's net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 12.3% from the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Premium Growth and COR Improvement - The company’s property and casualty insurance premium income grew by 3.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with motor insurance premiums increasing by 3.1% and non-motor insurance premiums by 3.8% [2] - The combined ratio (COR) improved by 2.1 percentage points to 96.1%, attributed to reduced catastrophe claims and enhanced cost control [2] - The Q3 standalone COR was 99.1%, indicating a shift from underwriting losses, with motor insurance COR at 94.8% and non-motor insurance COR at 98.0% [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company achieved an annualized total investment return of 5.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, due to a rising capital market and optimized asset allocation [2] - The company is expected to maintain a target of achieving a motor insurance COR below 96% and a non-motor insurance COR below 99% for 2025 [2]
中国财险(2328.HK)2025年三季报业绩点评：盈利显著提振 COR延续改善