Lilly(US:LLY) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-02 11:32Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a strong outlook on Eli Lilly, betting on what it describes as "one of the most significant product cycles in biopharmaceutical history" with the upcoming oral weight loss candidate orforglipron [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Eli Lilly's Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, leading to an upward revision of its full-year guidance [2] - Mounjaro sales grew by 109% year-over-year, while Zepbound saw a substantial increase of 184% in revenue [2] Group 2: Product Pipeline - The oral weight loss drug orforglipron is anticipated to represent a transformative product, with global regulatory submissions expected to begin soon and a market launch in the U.S. projected for next year [2][3] - The drug meets at least four out of the FDA's national priority voucher program requirements, facilitating accelerated approval [2] - Eli Lilly's management views orforglipron's sales strategy as similar to Zepbound, focusing on direct-to-consumer platforms [3] Group 3: Market Strategy and Expansion - The convenience of the oral formulation is expected to significantly expand the global target market size [3] - Eli Lilly is also advancing in next-generation obesity compounds, with phase II data for eloralintide set to be released and phase III results for retatrutide expected by the end of 2026 [3] Group 4: Valuation and Target Price - Goldman Sachs maintains a P/E valuation of 26.0x, suggesting that Eli Lilly is well-positioned ahead of the orforglipron launch in 2026 [4] - The target price for Eli Lilly has been raised from $879 to $951, indicating a potential upside of $90 from the current stock price, reaffirming a buy rating [4]