“八连阳”后 碳酸锂期价跌超3.4% 是回调还是反转？

Core Viewpoint - After eight consecutive days of gains, lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a significant pullback on October 31, with the main LC2601 contract closing at 80,780 yuan/ton, down 3.42% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices was driven by a substantial increase in energy storage battery orders, ongoing inventory depletion, and slower-than-expected resumption of production at CATL's Jiangxia project [2][4] - As prices rise, the willingness of downstream buyers to restock at high prices diminishes, leading to weaker spot transactions and limited inventory depletion [2][4] - Current lithium carbonate market conditions remain tight, with no signs of weakening in the short term, despite a slight decrease in production [4][5] Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - On October 31, the LC2601 contract saw a reduction in open interest by 22,400 contracts, but from October 16 to October 30, open interest increased by 343,000 contracts, reaching 555,000 contracts [3] - The price of lithium carbonate futures rose from 72,940 yuan/ton to a peak of 84,940 yuan/ton during this period, reflecting a more than 16% increase [3] - Analysts noted that as prices exceeded 80,000 yuan/ton, market divergence increased, and the willingness to hedge in the industry rose, leading to a decrease in purchasing intent from downstream buyers [3][6] Inventory and Production Insights - Since October, lithium carbonate futures inventory has significantly decreased, dropping from 42,379 contracts on October 9 to 27,621 contracts, a reduction of approximately 34.8% [4] - Weekly inventory reduction has slowed, with only 1,078 contracts removed last week compared to previous weeks where reductions exceeded 2,000 contracts [4] - As of October 30, lithium carbonate weekly production was approximately 21,000 tons, a slight decrease of 228 tons week-on-week, primarily from spodumene sources [4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue focusing on the resumption timeline of CATL's Jiangxia project, which could significantly impact prices [5] - If the project resumes production earlier than anticipated, there may be further downward pressure on prices; conversely, delays could lead to price increases due to ongoing inventory depletion [5][7] - Analysts predict that despite potential price adjustments, the market will remain supported by strong demand, particularly in the battery sector, with production expected to maintain an upward trend in November [4][6]