国金证券：景气度与锂电新技术共振 板块呈现多元化投资机遇

Group 1: Solid-State Battery Technology - The breakthrough in solid-state battery technology is driving accelerated capital expenditure (Capex) in the industry, with a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected from 2023 to 2025 due to continuous supply-side reforms and capacity convergence [1] - Solid-state batteries are identified as a long-term strategic direction, leading to a restructuring of processes and material systems, with pilot production lines expected to start in 2025 [1] - New market demands are emerging from data centers, low-altitude economy, humanoid robots, and overseas expansion, creating future growth opportunities [1] Group 2: Automotive Market Performance - In Q3 2025, the domestic passenger car market experienced fluctuations, with wholesale sales reaching 6.798 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 12.4% [2] - The total wholesale of domestic passenger cars from Q1 to Q3 2025 was 20.838 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0%, while new energy vehicle sales reached 3.992 million units, up 23.7% year-on-year [2] - Despite a seasonal slowdown in Q3, the overall performance of new energy vehicle sales remains robust, although retail growth has slowed due to subsidy uncertainties and high base effects from the previous year [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The automotive industry is facing intensified competition, impacting profitability, with single-vehicle profit margins declining as companies resort to pricing strategies to maintain sales volume [3] - Q4 2025 is expected to see strong sales, with electric vehicle penetration rates anticipated to reach new highs, particularly benefiting mid-to-low-end market players like BYD, Leap Motor, and Geely [4] - Looking ahead to 2026, the market faces significant uncertainties, with a new round of competition expected to emerge, although companies have reserves in new models, profits, and technology [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The mid-to-high-end market is projected to be less affected by demand fluctuations, presenting growth opportunities, particularly for companies associated with Huawei and Jianghuai Automobile [5] - Companies with strong product development capabilities in the mid-to-low-end market, such as Geely and Leap Motor, are also highlighted for their potential growth [5] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in technological advancements, including smart driving, robotics, and solid-state batteries, which are seen as inevitable trends in the industry [5]