Core Viewpoint - Meta's Q3 2025 revenue is projected to grow by 26% year-on-year to $51.2 billion, exceeding market expectations by 3% and CICC's expectations by 3% [1] - Net profit is expected to decline by 83% year-on-year to $2.7 billion, significantly below both CICC and market expectations, primarily due to one-time non-cash tax expenses [1] Revenue Projections - The company anticipates Q4 revenue to increase by 16% year-on-year, reaching between $56 billion and $59 billion, aligning with market expectations [1] - CICC has raised its 2026 revenue forecast by 4% to $235.9 billion, while maintaining the 2025 revenue forecast largely unchanged [1] Profit Adjustments - Due to one-time factors and increased depreciation, CICC has lowered its net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 20% and 6% respectively, to $59.1 billion and $74.3 billion [1] Rating and Target Price - CICC maintains a "outperform" rating for Meta, supported by an upward adjustment in AI valuation estimates [1] - The target price is set at $773, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 33.6 times and 26.7 times for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, indicating a 3% upside potential from the current stock price [1]
研报掘金丨中金:维持Meta“跑赢行业”评级及目标价773美元 AI价值估值中枢上移