SF Holding(SZ:002352) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-03 03:54Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities expresses optimism about the express delivery industry, highlighting a rebound in pricing elasticity and a resilient growth in demand, particularly in Q3 2025. Group 1: Business Volume - The industry demand shows resilient growth with a volume increase of 17.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, with SF Express leading the growth [1] - In terms of business volume and market share for the first three quarters of 2025: YTO Express (22.6 billion pieces, 15.6%) > Yunda (19.1 billion pieces, 13.2%) > Shentong (18.9 billion pieces, 13.0%) > Jitu (16.2 billion pieces, 11.1%) > SF Express (12.1 billion pieces, 8.3%) [1] - For Q3 2025, the growth rates are as follows: SF Express (33.4%) > YTO (15.0%) > industry average (13.3%) > Shentong (10.7%) > Jitu (10.4%) > Yunda (6.6%) [2] Group 2: Pricing - In the first three quarters of 2025, the express delivery industry generated revenue of 1,085.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, while the average ticket price decreased by 7.1% to 7.5 yuan [3] - Company performance in Q3 2025 shows: YTO (2.14 yuan, -2.4% YoY, +0.026 yuan QoQ) > Shentong (2.05 yuan, +2.1% YoY, +0.082 yuan QoQ) > Yunda (1.95 yuan, -2.1% YoY, +0.035 yuan QoQ); SF Express reported a ticket price of 13.57 yuan, down 14.4% YoY, but up 0.079 yuan QoQ [3] Group 3: Profit Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is led by SF Express (8.31 billion yuan, +9.1%) > YTO (2.88 billion yuan, -1.8%) > Shentong (760 million yuan, +15.8%) > Yunda (730 million yuan, -48.2%) [4] - For Q3 2025, the net profit figures are: SF Express (2.57 billion yuan, -8.5%) > YTO (1.05 billion yuan, +11.0%) > Shentong (300 million yuan, +40.3%) > Yunda (200 million yuan, -45.2%) [4] - The non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 shows SF Express (2.23 billion yuan, -14.2%) > YTO (1.01 billion yuan, +9.1%) > Shentong (320 million yuan, +59.6%) > Yunda (200 million yuan, -40.6%) [4] Group 4: Single Ticket Analysis - The non-GAAP net profit per ticket increased by at least 0.01 yuan in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 2025, with YTO leading at 0.131 yuan > Shentong at 0.049 yuan > Yunda at 0.031 yuan [5] - Year-on-year growth in Q3 2025 shows Shentong with the highest increase, while YTO and Yunda experienced declines [5] Group 5: Capital Expenditure - In the first three quarters of 2025, capital expenditures for major companies are as follows: SF Express (6.7 billion yuan, -2.6%) > YTO (6.3 billion yuan, +34.1%) > Yunda (1.9 billion yuan, +51.9%) > Shentong (2.1 billion yuan, -10.5%) [5]