国金证券：25Q3制药行业赛道分化延续 创新药放量提速

Group 1: Overall Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's overall revenue and net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025 is -3% and -8% respectively, indicating stable performance [1] - In Q3 2025, the revenue growth is -1% while net profit growth is +17%, driven by factors such as innovative drug license exports and operational efficiency improvements [1] - The average net profit margin for representative pharmaceutical companies is approximately 13%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [2] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Companies - Among 17 representative pharmaceutical companies, the overall revenue and net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025 is -0.7% and +4.5% respectively, with an average net profit margin of about 13% [2] - Companies with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan show a revenue decline of -1.9% and a profit increase of +4.4%, while those with revenue below 10 billion yuan have growth rates of +4.3% and +4.7% respectively [2] - The performance of leading pharmaceutical companies with innovative transformations and high barrier products is notably better [2] Group 3: Biotech Companies - Biotech companies are experiencing rapid growth, with 11 representative companies generating cumulative revenue of approximately 12.4 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 31% [3] - Factors contributing to the rapid revenue growth include international expansion, product efficacy advantages, and favorable insurance policies for innovative drugs [3] - Domestic innovative drug companies are expected to continue entering a performance harvest period as they approach breakeven points [3] Group 4: Biological Products - The biological products sector, particularly vaccines and blood products, is in a downward trend, with representative companies showing revenue and net profit growth of -25% and -50% respectively for Q1-Q3 2025 [4] - The vaccine sector has seen many companies expand losses in Q3, while the blood products sector faces declining profitability due to lower gross margins [4] - Despite the overall decline, leading companies in high-barrier niche markets continue to show growth [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The main investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector for 2025-2026 are in innovative drugs and the reversal of challenges in left-side sectors [5] - Focus areas include dual/multiple antibody drugs targeting unmet clinical needs and investment opportunities in ADC, dual/multiple antibodies, and small nucleic acid sectors [5]