Zhongtai Securities(SH:600918) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-03 23:41Core Viewpoint - The domestic medical device industry is in a rapid development phase, with short-term challenges from medical insurance cost control and international conditions, but the outlook remains positive due to innovation-driven import substitution and globalization [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - The medical device sector is expected to enter a turning point, with varying rhythms across different sub-sectors [1] - The revenue of medical device listed companies in the first three quarters of 2025 was 183.35 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.90%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 22.70 billion, down 17.70% [2] - The revenue growth rates for different sub-sectors from high to low are high-value consumables (+5.12%), low-value consumables (-0.75%), medical devices (-1.02%), and in vitro diagnostics (-13.94%) [2] Group 2: High-Value Consumables - The high-value consumables sector has entered a post-collection phase, with revenue growth of 5.12% in the first three quarters of 2025 and a net profit increase of 1.18% [4] - In Q3 2025, the revenue growth for high-value consumables was 7.46%, while net profit decreased by 0.76%, indicating relative stability compared to other sectors [4] - The sector is benefiting from increased domestic market share and ongoing innovation and international expansion [4] Group 3: Medical Devices - The medical device sector saw a revenue decline of 1.02% in the first three quarters of 2025, but a significant recovery in Q3 with a revenue increase of 9.99% and a net profit growth of 4.87% [5] - The sector is experiencing a recovery due to improved bidding processes and low base effects, with expectations for continued growth as domestic conditions stabilize [5] Group 4: Low-Value Consumables - The low-value consumables sector experienced a revenue decline of 0.75% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a more significant net profit drop of 21.68% [6] - In Q3 2025, revenue decreased by 2.74% and net profit fell by 21.98%, primarily due to international market fluctuations affecting orders and profitability [6][7] - The sector's growth potential remains tied to international expansion, despite short-term challenges [7] Group 5: In Vitro Diagnostics - The in vitro diagnostics sector faced a revenue decline of 13.94% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit drop of 32.20% [7] - The decline is attributed to the implementation of various negative policies, including DRGs and centralized procurement, leading to a drop in both volume and price [7] - Long-term growth prospects are supported by ongoing innovation and international market expansion [7]