高盛：尽管鲍威尔放鹰，仍将12月降息作为基准预测

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statements after the October meeting surprised the market, but Goldman Sachs maintains its baseline forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in December due to the ongoing cooling of the labor market [1][2][7] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Goldman Sachs expects that even if the government shutdown ends next week, the incremental data available before the December meeting is likely to be weak, supporting the case for a rate cut [2][4] - Powell's hawkish signals after the meeting indicated that monetary policy is not on a preset path, and committee members have differing views on the pace of rate cuts, which caught the market off guard [2][3] - The dot plot from September suggests that most committee members view rate cuts as the default option, with no signs of improvement in the labor market [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Employment - The government shutdown is expected to negatively impact employment data, with delayed resignation data affecting the October employment report and potentially the November data as well [4] - The reliability of the data as a signal will be diminished due to the government shutdown, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [4] - Goldman Sachs believes that betting on a rate cut in December will prove to be a good opportunity, but suggests waiting for a better entry point due to the lack of immediate catalysts for a market reversal [4] Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - Looking beyond 2025, Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the policy path will be more dispersed with numerous intersecting factors [5] - The recent announcement by Amazon regarding layoffs due to AI highlights that, despite productivity improvements, the labor market may weaken while economic growth remains strong, potentially leading to lower neutral interest rates [5] - Although the market has stabilized around a terminal rate of approximately 3%, Goldman Sachs notes significant uncertainty surrounding this level [5]