国金证券：25Q3风电板块盈利继续向上 看好本轮整机盈利弹性释放周期

Core Viewpoint - The wind power industry is experiencing improved operational cash flow and strong demand, with expectations for continued growth in the fourth quarter and beyond [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, the wind power sector achieved a revenue of 66.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.45 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year, indicating a sustained growth trend in profitability [2]. - The operating cash flow for the sector improved to 3.4 billion yuan, an increase of 700 million yuan compared to the previous year [2][4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Orders - The domestic wind power bidding remained high, with an estimated 300 GW of orders on hand, ensuring robust future demand and stable pricing [3][4]. - The average winning bid price for onshore wind projects from January to October was 1,593 yuan/kW, reflecting a 12% increase compared to 2024 [3][4]. Group 3: Segment Analysis - The profitability in the turbine segment is diversifying, with companies like Goldwind and Yunda benefiting from fewer low-price orders and an increase in offshore wind project deliveries [4]. - Operators' cash flow significantly improved in Q3 due to accelerated national subsidies, which is expected to enhance project investment enthusiasm [4]. - The offshore wind segment is experiencing high demand, with capital expenditures accelerating as companies expand their new bases [4][5]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on turbine manufacturers benefiting from sustained demand and improved pricing, highlighting Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy [5]. - Companies in the offshore cable and foundation segments, such as Daikin Heavy Industries and Dongfang Cable, are also recommended due to high demand and overseas order spillover [5]. - The foundry and blade segments are expected to see significant performance elasticity due to tight supply and demand, with recommendations for Jinlei Co. and Times New Materials [5].