下调全年盈利预期，亿滋国际承压

Core Insights - Mondelez International reported mixed Q3 results amid record cocoa costs, with revenues of $9.744 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and organic growth of 3.4%. However, net profit fell by 12.9% to $743 million, and gross margin declined by 10.1 percentage points to 30.4% due to high cocoa costs and increased transportation expenses [2] - The company lowered its full-year earnings forecast, now expecting organic revenue growth of about 4%, down from the previous target of 5%, with adjusted earnings per share projected to decline by 15% year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profitability - In the European market, Mondelez implemented a price increase of approximately 30% on chocolate products to counter cocoa cost pressures, but faced a 7.5% decline in sales volume due to competitors and retailers not matching the price increases [2] - In the U.S. market, the company shifted from discount promotions to high-value events and brand collaborations, but sales volume still decreased by 4% year-on-year [2] - Emerging markets also saw a decline in sales volume of 4.7% in Q3 [2] Cost Management and Future Outlook - Mondelez is relying on price increases to maintain performance and profitability amid cost pressures, but this strategy may weaken brand competitiveness if overused [3] - The CFO indicated that cocoa costs have peaked and are expected to improve next year, with anticipated sales rebounds in Europe and positive impacts from price reductions in the U.S. market [3] - Emerging markets, particularly Mexico, China, India, and Brazil, are expected to show strong revenue growth [3] Business Highlights - The baking segment emerged as a bright spot for Mondelez in Q3, with the recently acquired Chinese frozen baking company contributing $288 million in net revenue for the first three quarters, including $87 million in Q3 alone [3] - Mondelez views the baking category as a significant growth area due to its blurred boundaries with cookies and low market concentration, leading to strategic acquisitions and brand extensions [4] Market Potential - The global cake and pastry market is valued at $97 billion, with a high single-digit compound annual growth rate, making it one of the fastest-growing packaged snack categories [5] - As consumer preferences evolve, the baking industry is entering a rapid expansion phase, and Mondelez is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its strong brand presence and loyal customer base [5]