Core Viewpoint - The company is set to enhance its coal mining operations in Indonesia, particularly through the TSE coal mine project, which is expected to significantly increase coal production and improve profitability in the coming years [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: TSE Coal Mine Project - The TSE coal mine is located in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, covering an area of 168 square kilometers, with a mining license valid until May 14, 2034, and can be renewed for another ten years [1]. - The project construction is anticipated to commence in the first quarter of 2026, with estimated coal reserves of 378.79 million tons and total resources of 897.14 million tons as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - The coal quality at TSE ranges from 4,990 to 6,056 kcal/kg, which is superior to the existing SDE coal mine's quality of approximately 4,500 kcal/kg [1]. Group 2: SDE Coal Mine Performance - In the first half of 2025, the SDE coal mine produced 2.05 million tons of raw coal, a significant increase from 755,000 tons in the same period last year, with a daily production peak of 27,000 tons [2]. - The company plans to enhance its washing capacity by adding new equipment, which is expected to double the production capacity post the commissioning of SDE Phase II in the first half of 2026 [2]. - The company operates five major mining areas in South Kalimantan, establishing a strong foundation for resource value operations [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Pricing - The domestic coal price is expected to rebound in the second half of the year due to supply constraints from safety inspections and low inventory levels, which are likely to support price increases [3][4]. - The company anticipates that coal prices will rise further if demand exceeds expectations, particularly in the event of a cold winter, potentially leading to peak prices by year-end [4]. - The company projects net profits of 1.6 billion, 6.9 billion, and 11.9 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 44.8X, 10.7X, and 6.2X [4].
中国秦发(00866.HK)：TSE矿区煤质更好 煤价反转上行 宏图大展空间可期