证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 18 年 月 日 煤炭开采 11 月火电同比-4.2%。11 月份，规上工业发电量 7792 亿千瓦时，同比增长 2.7%；日均发电 259.7 亿千瓦时。1—11 月份，规上工业发电量 88567 亿千 瓦时，同比增长 2.4%。分品种看，11 月份，规上工业火电由增转降，水电较 快增长，核电、太阳能发电增速加快，风电由降转增。其中，规上工业火电同 比下降 4.2%，10 月份为增长 7.3%；规上工业水电增长 17.1%，增速比 10 月份放缓 11.1 个百分点；规上工业核电增长 4.7%，增速比 10 月份加快 0.5 个百分点；规上工业风电增长 22.0%，10 月份为下降 11.9%；规上工业太阳 能发电增长 23.4%，增速比 10 月份加快 17.5 个百分点。 11 月粗钢产量同比-10.88%。根据国家统计局数据，2025 年 11 月粗钢产 量 6987 万吨，同比-10.88%，降幅环比 10 月减少 1.19pct。根据 Mysteel， 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日当周，247 家样本钢厂日均铁水产量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Insights - The report indicates that high natural gas prices in the U.S. are driving a resurgence in coal consumption, with utilities opting to increase coal-fired power generation to control costs [2][3] - The performance of coal-fired power generation in the U.S. has seen a year-on-year increase of 21% in Q1 2025, while gas-fired generation has decreased by approximately 3% [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - As of December 12, 2025, coal prices have seen slight adjustments, with Newcastle coal priced at $107.75 per ton, down by $1.75 from the previous week, and ARA coal at $95.55 per ton, down by $1.20 [3][33] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal consumption in the U.S. due to the cost control measures by utilities, leading to a shift back to coal from gas [2][3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3][6] - It also highlights companies with potential growth such as Huayang Co., Gansu Energy Chemical, and Jiangxi Tungsten Industry, which have recently undergone significant changes [3][6] Market Trends - The report notes that coal-fired power generation's carbon emissions are approximately 75% higher than those from gas-fired generation, indicating a potential increase in overall carbon emissions as coal's share in power generation rises [3] - The report anticipates further increases in natural gas prices, which could continue to influence coal consumption patterns [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to stabilize and recover in price due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints as the year-end safety inspections become stricter [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - In October, electricity consumption exceeded expectations with a growth of 10.4%, while non-electric demand remained weak, leading to a 9.7% year-on-year decline in coal imports [1]. - Domestic coal prices saw fluctuations in November, with a rise followed by a decline, while long-term contract prices were adjusted upwards [1]. - International coal prices, particularly for Australian thermal and coking coal, continued to rise in November [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal production decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in October, and coal imports fell by 12.0% in November [1]. - The global seaborne coal loading volume dropped by 3.6% year-on-year in the first ten months, but demand from emerging markets remained strong [1]. - Seasonal demand is expected to increase from December to January, supporting coal prices as supply remains relatively low due to stricter safety regulations [2]. Group 3: Key Companies - Companies with stable earnings and dividends include China Shenhua (601008.SH), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225.SH), and China Coal Energy (601898.SH) [3]. - Companies likely to benefit from improved demand expectations and supply reductions include Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) and Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) [3]. - Companies with notable long-term growth potential include Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) and China Qinfa (00866) [3].

人民财讯12月8日电，港股午间收盘，恒生指数跌1.1%，恒生科技指数跌0.24%。泡泡玛特跌超8%；中 资券商股上涨，华泰证券涨超6%；煤炭股下跌，中国秦发跌超12%。 ...

每经AI快讯，港股煤炭股跌幅居前。截至发稿，中国秦发(00866.HK)跌11.25%，报2.84港元；中煤能源 (01898.HK)跌3.62%，报10.38港元；中国神华(01088.HK)跌2.7%，报39.6港元；兖矿能源(01171.HK)跌 2.51%，报10.11港元。 ...

消息面上，12月8日，焦炭连续主力合约日内跌5%；焦煤期货主力合约跌超6%。中信建投指出，完成 第四轮提涨后，主流钢厂于11月28日正式对焦炭提出"第一轮提降"，预计12月1日执行。炼焦煤价格因 需求回落而下跌，导致焦炭成本支撑进一步弱化；同时钢厂因利润压力，凭借减产带来的议价权，对焦 炭成功发起"首轮提降"，或标志煤焦市场的拐点确立。 智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股跌幅居前，截至发稿，中国秦发(00866)跌11.25%，报2.84港元；中煤能源 (01898)跌3.62%，报10.38港元；中国神华(01088)跌2.7%，报39.6港元；兖矿能源(01171)跌2.51%，报 10.11港元。 ...

消息面上，12月8日，焦炭连续主力合约日内跌5%；焦煤期货主力合约跌超6%。中信建投（601066） 指出，完成第四轮提涨后，主流钢厂于11月28日正式对焦炭提出"第一轮提降"，预计12月1日执行。炼 焦煤价格因需求回落而下跌，导致焦炭成本支撑进一步弱化；同时钢厂因利润压力，凭借减产带来的议 价权，对焦炭成功发起"首轮提降"，或标志煤焦市场的拐点确立。 煤炭股跌幅居前，截至发稿，中国秦发(00866)跌11.25%，报2.84港元；中煤能源（601898）(01898)跌 3.62%，报10.38港元；中国神华（601088）(01088)跌2.7%，报39.6港元；兖矿能源（600188）(01171)跌 2.51%，报10.11港元。 ...

信达证券研报指出，煤炭需求偏弱震荡或延续，供给约束深跌亦难为。当前正处在煤炭经济新一轮周期 上行的初期，基本面、政策面共振，现阶段逢低配置煤炭板块正当时。值得注意的是，受全国气温普遍 高于常年水平影响，电厂日耗持续低于预期，港口及产地价格承压回落。短期看，未来1-2周全国大部 气温仍较常年偏高，需求释放或有限，煤价预计延续弱势调整。 港股煤炭股盘初持续走低，中国秦发跌超6%，兖煤澳大利亚跌近4%，中煤能源跌3.5%，力量发展跌超 3%，中国神华、金马能源、兖矿能源跌超2%，首钢资源跌1.7%。 消息上，动力煤价格方面，上周秦港价格周环比下降，产地大同价格周环比下降。港口动力煤方面，截 至12月6日，秦皇岛港动力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价791元/吨，周环比下跌27元/吨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00866 | 中国泰发 | 3.000 | -6.25% | | 03668 | 兖煤澳大利亚 | 28.460 | -3.85% | | 01898 | 中煤能源 | 10.390 | -3.53% | | 01277 | 力量 ...

港股煤炭股下跌，中国秦发跌超6%，力量发展、中煤能源、中国神华跟跌。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月8日，港股煤炭股下跌，中国秦发跌超6%，力量发展、中煤能源、中国神华跟跌。 ...