国信证券：全球资产流动性的“危”与买入的“机”

Core Viewpoint - The current market logic is driven by liquidity contraction rather than risk aversion, primarily due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, which has led to a significant liquidity gap of $1.5 to $1.8 trillion [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - Various asset classes have experienced notable pullbacks, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures falling below their 20-day moving averages, and gold dropping below 4000 [1]. - The U.S. Treasury yield has shown a steady decline, indicating a broader trend of liquidity contraction affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [1]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government shutdown is projected to create an annualized liquidity gap of $1.85 trillion, with a weekly absorption of $35.5 billion from the private sector [2]. - The shutdown is expected to reduce annualized revenue by $85 billion while cutting expenditures by $1.93 trillion, exacerbating the liquidity crunch [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - U.S. investment banks anticipate that the federal government will resume operations within two weeks, with bipartisan agreement expected on fiscal issues [3]. - Confidence among Republican senators suggests that the political deadlock may soon be resolved, potentially alleviating liquidity concerns [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market pullback in U.S. equities is viewed as a buying opportunity, with the S&P 500's fair valuation range estimated between 6900 and 6950, indicating no significant valuation burden [4]. - In the Hong Kong market, the ongoing process of valuation digestion is expected to be limited due to the high certainty of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, creating favorable conditions for investment [5]. Group 5: Sector Recommendations - Strong sectors facing profit-taking pressure before liquidity recovery may present greater opportunities post-recovery, particularly in semiconductors and materials [6]. - The semiconductor sector, especially storage chips, is positioned for a cyclical upswing, while gold and industrial metals are expected to benefit from stable demand and favorable market conditions [6].