KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-05 19:08Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market, particularly the price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai, is experiencing significant downward pressure, with prices dropping below 1600 yuan due to aggressive e-commerce subsidies, indicating a shift in market dynamics and channel transformations within the industry [2][3][14]. Price Trends - On November 4, 2025, the price of 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai on platforms like Pinduoduo fell to 1590 yuan per bottle after a "100 billion subsidy," with a single bottle subsidy amounting to 397 yuan [3]. - The two-bottle package price dropped to 3150 yuan, averaging 1575 yuan per bottle, marking a new low in recent market transactions [3]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has seen a significant decline from 2290 yuan during the Spring Festival to below 1700 yuan in late October, representing a drop of over 24% from the beginning of the year [5][14]. Impact on Distributors - The low pricing strategy has created a "price inversion," where the retail price on e-commerce platforms is lower than the wholesale price for distributors, causing significant distress among offline liquor merchants [5][6]. - Distributors are now hesitant to stock up due to the drastic price cuts, leading to disrupted sales rhythms and reduced profit margins [6][8]. - Some distributors are forced to sell at a loss or turn to e-commerce platforms as third-party suppliers to survive in the current market [8][10]. E-commerce Dynamics - The current e-commerce landscape is characterized by a "low-price vortex," where major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are sold at a loss primarily for customer acquisition rather than profit [10][12]. - New entrants like Meituan and Douyin have intensified competition, leading to increased subsidies and further price reductions [12]. - The traditional distribution model is being challenged as e-commerce gains access to low-cost inventory, diminishing the control that liquor companies previously had over pricing [12][14]. Future Outlook - The ongoing price war is expected to lead to a complete overhaul of the liquor industry's distribution channels, with potential regulatory interventions to curb "involutionary" competition [14]. - The price trajectory of Feitian Moutai will serve as a critical indicator for assessing the overall health of the liquor industry moving forward [14].