美股AI“神话”还能持续多久？

Group 1 - The global stock market is experiencing a downturn, with the KOSPI index dropping over 6% and the Nikkei 225 index falling below 50,000 points for the first time since October 27 [1] - The U.S. stock market is facing a collective decline, particularly in tech stocks, as investors grow concerned about high valuations following a strong rally driven by AI hype and interest rate expectations [1][2] - There is a growing consensus that the AI narrative in the U.S. is unsustainable, with 95% of companies using generative AI not generating profits, raising doubts about the viability of the AGI model [1][2] Group 2 - AI-related spending in the U.S. has contributed more to GDP growth than all consumer spending combined, with projections indicating that AI spending will account for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of 2025 [2] - Despite massive investments, companies like OpenAI are facing significant losses, with a projected net loss of $13.5 billion in the first half of 2025, and nearly 80% of AI-deploying companies not seeing profit increases [2] - The current AI bubble in the U.S. is compared to Japan's past bubble, with inter-company investments inflating stock prices and creating hidden leverage, raising concerns about a potential market collapse if cash flows do not materialize [3] Group 3 - The competition from China is intensifying, as nearly half of the global AI talent is sourced from China, which is adopting a pragmatic approach to AI development focused on industrial applications [3][4] - Chinese investments in AI are significantly lower than those in the U.S., yet they are fostering a robust AI ecosystem that enhances economic efficiency and competitiveness in global markets [3][4] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley predict a potential 10% to 20% correction in the U.S. stock market due to the tech bubble, while expressing optimism for the Chinese market, particularly in AI, electric vehicles, and biotechnology [4]