KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-06 00:41Core Viewpoint - The price of Moutai has significantly dropped, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics, moving from a status symbol to a regular product [3][10][18]. Group 1: Price Trends - The wholesale price of 53-degree Moutai has fallen below 1600 yuan, marking a historical low, compared to its peak of around 3000 yuan in late 2021, indicating a nearly 50% decline in four years [3][13]. - In early 2024, the price was still high, but by April, it dropped from 2600 yuan to 2100 yuan, signaling a change in market sentiment [10][12]. - By November 2023, the price had further decreased to 1600 yuan, with reports of significant losses for distributors who had purchased at higher prices [12][14]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Moutai's decline is attributed to overproduction, changing consumer preferences, and the impact of e-commerce on pricing [16][21]. - The production capacity of Moutai reached 57,200 tons in 2023, with expectations to increase to 67,200 tons by 2025, leading to an oversupply situation [18][20]. - The shift in consumer behavior, particularly among younger generations favoring lower-alcohol beverages and a more casual drinking culture, has diminished Moutai's status as a social currency [17][24]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Younger consumers prioritize experience and atmosphere over traditional status symbols, leading to a decline in Moutai's appeal as a luxury item [17][22]. - The traditional consumption scenarios for Moutai, such as business banquets, have been negatively impacted by new regulations and changing corporate spending habits [21][25]. - Efforts by Moutai to adapt to younger consumers, such as introducing smaller packaging and promotional events, have not yet yielded significant results [24][25]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The entire liquor industry is facing challenges, with high inventory levels and declining demand affecting various segments [21][25]. - Moutai's price drop is part of a broader trend in the industry, where companies must adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions to survive [25]. - The focus is shifting back to the essence of drinking rather than speculation and investment, which may stabilize the market in the long run [25].