Core Insights - Global gold demand is expected to remain resilient in Q4, with a potential seasonal rebound in the Chinese market driven by holidays [1] - The World Gold Council (WGC) indicates that geopolitical uncertainties and anticipated interest rate cuts in Q4 will continue to support global gold demand [1] - Investment demand remains dominant, with record high global gold demand in Q3 2025, primarily driven by gold bars and coins [1][2] Group 1: Global Gold Demand - In Q3 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 1,313 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, with total demand value rising 44% to $146 billion [1] - Investment demand accounted for 40.9% of total gold demand, with gold bar and coin demand exceeding 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, totaling 316 tons [1] - Central bank gold purchases remained high at 220 tons in Q3, a 28% increase quarter-on-quarter, despite a slowdown in cumulative purchases compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Chinese Gold Market - In Q3 2025, China's retail gold investment and consumption demand totaled 152 tons, a 7% year-on-year decline, marking the weakest Q3 since 2009 [3] - However, the monetary value of this demand reached 120.4 billion RMB (approximately $16.9 billion), a 29% year-on-year increase, indicating a "volume drop, price rise" trend [3] - Gold jewelry demand saw a seasonal rebound, with a quarterly demand of 84 tons, down 18% year-on-year but up 21% quarter-on-quarter, driven by seasonal factors and consumer willingness to purchase despite high prices [3] Group 3: Gold Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply increased only 3% year-on-year to 1,313 tons, with gold mine production and recycled gold contributing 73.8% and 26.2% respectively [2] - The average gold price in Q3 2025 reached $3,457 per ounce, a 40% year-on-year increase, reflecting the disparity between strong demand and limited supply growth [2] Group 4: Gold ETFs in China - In Q3, China's gold ETFs experienced a slight outflow of 3.8 billion RMB (approximately $540 million), ending three consecutive quarters of net inflow [4] - Despite the outflow, the total assets under management (AUM) for gold ETFs grew 11% year-on-year to 168.8 billion RMB (approximately $23.7 billion), reaching a new monthly high [4] - The Chinese official gold reserves increased by 24 tons in the first nine months of the year, with a quarterly increase of 5 tons, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth [4]
海通国际：全球黄金需求创新高 中国市场量跌价升结构分化明显