新城控股缩表求生，进入转型关键期

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings reported a decline in both revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, while commercial operation income increased, indicating a shift in focus amid ongoing challenges in the residential sector [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, New City Holdings achieved operating revenue of 34.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 970 million yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year [2]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a reduction in the scale of development business turnover, with a completed area of 3.5 million square meters, down 59.8% year-on-year [3]. - Total assets decreased from 534.2 billion yuan in 2021 to 307.2 billion yuan in 2024, with liabilities reduced from 437.2 billion yuan to 224.5 billion yuan, indicating a significant contraction of over 200 billion yuan in three years [3]. Debt Management - New City Holdings is approaching the end of its debt repayment peak, with only two debts remaining due in 2025: a $250 million overseas bond maturing in October and a 2 billion yuan medium-term note maturing in December [3]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company’s payable construction funds were 38.39 billion yuan, down from 45.27 billion yuan at the beginning of the year, reflecting a reduction in cash outflow pressure [3]. Financing and Market Position - New City Holdings has successfully navigated financing channels, issuing two medium-term notes totaling 1.9 billion yuan and two unsecured U.S. dollar bonds totaling $4.6 billion in 2025 [4]. - Despite the successful financing, the company faces inventory pressure, with the overall real estate market experiencing a slowdown in sales [4]. Commercial Operations - The company has opened and managed 176 Wuyue Plazas, generating total commercial operation revenue of 10.51 billion yuan, an increase of 10.8% year-on-year, with an average occupancy rate of 97.7% [6]. - New City Holdings is expected to generate approximately 14 billion yuan in taxable rental income and around 13 billion yuan in revenue in 2025, while its market valuation stands at approximately 31.872 billion yuan [6]. Investor Sentiment - Investors express concerns regarding New City Holdings' ability to navigate through economic cycles, especially following recent incidents involving the misuse of funds by major shareholders, which have led to audit complications [6].