STEC(SH:600820) Ge Long Hui·2025-11-06 07:36Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that the investment income of Tunnel Corporation has impacted Q3 short-term performance, but a significant rebound in Q4 performance is expected due to a reduction in investment income drag compared to last year [1] Group 1: Performance Expectations - Last year's Q4 investment income was -148 million yuan, but this year's Q4 is anticipated to show a marked improvement [1] - Historically, Q4 performance accounts for approximately 50% of the annual net profit attributable to the parent company, suggesting a potential significant improvement in annual performance growth compared to the first three quarters [1] - The company is projected to achieve an annual performance growth of +1.3% and a Q4 performance growth of +24% [1] Group 2: Order Growth - Q3 saw a rapid increase in orders, particularly in road, real estate, and operational projects [1] - For the period from Q1 to Q3 of 2025, the company signed new contracts worth 69 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of +5.1% [1] - The new contracts signed in Q3 alone amounted to 22.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of +17% [1] Group 3: Profit Projections - Based on current and new orders, the projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is expected to be 2.88 billion yuan, 3.06 billion yuan, and 3.23 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +1.3%, +6.4%, and +5.4% respectively [1] - Corresponding earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.92 yuan, 0.97 yuan, and 1.03 yuan per share for the same years [1] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are estimated to be 7.3, 6.9, and 6.5 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]