大和：上调中国重汽目标价至29.4港元 看好明年国内、外重型卡车需求

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has raised the target price for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (000951)(03808) to HKD 29.4, an increase of 35% from the previous HKD 21.7, while maintaining an "Outperform" rating [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The expectation is that as the U.S. enters a rate-cutting cycle, overseas demand for Chinese heavy-duty trucks will remain strong next year [1] - Domestic demand for heavy-duty trucks is supported by the ongoing vehicle replacement subsidy policy [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Daiwa is optimistic about China National Heavy Duty Truck's leading position in the domestic heavy-duty truck market and anticipates an increase in its global market share [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted upward by 0% to 1%, reflecting a stronger-than-expected recovery in domestic heavy-duty truck sales driven by the vehicle replacement subsidies [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Due to economies of scale, the gross margin forecast for 2025 to 2027 has been increased by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points [1] - The target price-to-earnings ratio has been raised from 8.5 times to 9.8 times based on improved industry sales outlook [1]