不止AI有“闭环”，美股也“闭环”了：企业裁员推高股价，股市走高刺激消费，消费强劲支撑业绩

Core Insights - The article discusses a non-typical "closed loop" in the U.S. economy, where corporate layoffs boost stock prices, which in turn stimulate consumer spending, creating a cycle that supports corporate performance and economic resilience [1][18] - This phenomenon is described as a Soros-style "reflexivity" loop, warning that it may lead to a bubble that could burst if the stock market, driven by AI, declines or consumer confidence collapses [1][18] Group 1: Economic Trends - Morgan Stanley's report highlights a "strange decoupling" between a deteriorating labor market and strong household wealth growth, particularly in the U.S. [1][2] - The employment growth in developed markets has significantly slowed, with the G4 group's employment growth rate nearing stagnation at 0.3% annualized by Q3 2025 [2] - Household wealth in developed markets surged over 10% annualized in the last two quarters, with the U.S. seeing a remarkable 14.8% increase [7] Group 2: Wealth Effect and Consumer Spending - The "wealth effect" is identified as a key driver of consumer spending, where households increase spending even without income growth, with an estimated additional spending of about 3.5 cents for every dollar increase in wealth in the U.S. [10] - Despite the temporary support from the wealth effect, indicators show that U.S. consumers are running low on "fuel" for spending, as personal savings rates have dropped significantly since mid-2024 [13] Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Economic Risks - Consumer confidence is declining, with median expectations for nominal income growth falling below 2.5%, and 68% of households believing income growth will not keep pace with inflation, marking the most pessimistic outlook since 1975 [13][18] - The current economic logic appears contradictory, as the resilience of the U.S. economy heavily relies on the continued prosperity of the stock market, which may not be sustainable given high valuation metrics [18] - Analysts warn that if the wealth effect diminishes and layoffs occur, the stock market could shift from being a buffer to amplifying downward pressures on the economy [18]