“获利了结”的机构正评估“重新入场黄金”时机：短期焦点是“黄金ETF”的粘性

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a critical phase following a significant rise and subsequent pullback in gold prices, with institutional investors maintaining a positive medium-term outlook despite short-term profit-taking [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that despite recent price corrections, institutional investors remain optimistic about gold's long-term prospects, predicting an average price of $4,980 per ounce by the next LBMA meeting in October 2026 [1][2] - The report highlights a remarkable demand surge in Q3 2025, with total demand from investors and central banks reaching approximately 950 tons, equivalent to about $106 billion, which is nearly 50% higher than the average of the previous four quarters [1] Group 2: Short-term Focus and ETF Flows - Many institutional investors have taken profits during the recent price surge and are now assessing the timing and price for re-entry, with a focus on the "stickiness" of recent ETF flows [3] - Data shows a net outflow of about 35 tons from global gold ETFs over the past two weeks, which is only half of the record inflow of 62 tons recorded in the week ending October 17 [3] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases - The report emphasizes that ongoing, price-insensitive purchases by global central banks are a cornerstone supporting the long-term bull market for gold [7] - In Q3 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 220 tons, a 30% increase quarter-on-quarter, with an annualized purchase rate of 880 tons [7][10] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - There is a noticeable divergence in physical demand, with gold jewelry demand declining by 19% year-on-year in Q3 2025, particularly in India where it fell by 31% [11] - Conversely, retail demand for gold bars and coins has remained robust, growing by 17% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in jewelry demand [12][15] Group 5: Potential Risks and Market Dynamics - The report warns of potential risks related to gold recycling supply, which has seen only moderate growth despite high prices, with a 1% quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 2025 [16] - A market dynamic to watch is the potential for panic selling if market sentiment reverses, which could lead to a surge in recycled gold supply and exacerbate downward price pressure [17]