Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy on gold, effective from November 1, 2025, is expected to significantly increase the overall cost structure of the gold jewelry industry, leading to price adjustments and potential impacts on consumer demand [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of gold, resulting in a clear upward trend in overall costs across the industry [2]. - For investment purposes, the new policy restricts gold exchange members from issuing special VAT invoices, eliminating the ability for downstream entities to fully deduct input VAT, leading to a zero input deduction [2]. - For non-investment purposes, the ability to issue special invoices is also restricted, with a fixed deduction rate of 6% applied to ordinary invoices, significantly reducing the deductible input VAT [2]. Group 2: Impact on Industry Costs - The overall tax burden on physical gold transactions is expected to rise, which will be transmitted along the supply chain, increasing costs for businesses [2]. - A hypothetical scenario illustrates that a gold jewelry company’s tax liability for non-investment purposes could increase from 80,000 yuan to 135,000 yuan, and for investment purposes, it could rise to 195,000 yuan, indicating a substantial increase in effective tax burden [2]. - The inability to issue special invoices for investment gold sales will further elevate the tax burden in the distribution chain, particularly affecting companies with a high proportion of franchise sales [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new tax policy, major gold and jewelry brands raised prices by approximately 5% to 6% to partially offset the new tax burden [1]. - As international gold prices declined, brands subsequently adjusted their prices downward, indicating a dynamic pricing environment influenced by both policy and market conditions [1]. - Continuous monitoring of the policy's implementation and its effects on the industry is recommended to understand the evolving market landscape [1].
海通国际：黄金税收新政提升整体税负 品牌提价向终端传导