Citi(US:C) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-07 08:53Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that AI is creating a phenomenon of "jobless prosperity," which may compel the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates in the coming months [1][2] - AI applications are enhancing productivity while simultaneously suppressing companies' willingness to hire, leading to weak employment data [1][2] - The weak employment and moderate inflation data will provide the Federal Reserve with the space to continue lowering interest rates, which in turn will stimulate companies to increase AI capital expenditures, creating a positive feedback loop [1][2] Group 2 - This new cycle breaks the traditional economic pattern where employment and growth are synchronized, creating a new paradigm of "growth without job creation" [2] - Analysts suggest that a weak job market no longer necessarily indicates an economic recession; instead, it may become a byproduct of productivity enhancement in the AI era [2] - The positive feedback loop involves AI applications boosting productivity, leading to reduced hiring needs, weaker employment data, and subsequent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 3 - Citigroup emphasizes that in the AI-driven new economic paradigm, monetary easing and strong economic performance can coexist, with technology investment returns potentially being longer and more stable than before [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stating that a rate cut in December is "far from" a foregone conclusion, Citigroup economists believe that weak employment and moderate inflation data will drive the Fed to continue lowering rates in December, January, and March [3] - Analysts highlight that if the U.S. government can reopen soon, the Federal Reserve may need to consider the combined impact of three employment reports, suggesting that the rate cut cycle could be longer and more substantial than market expectations [3]