Morgan Stanley(US:MS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-11-07 11:55Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has obscured signals of structural weakness in the labor market, which may lead to a downward pressure on the dollar once data resumes publication [2] - In October, the dollar recorded its second-best monthly performance of the year despite the government shutdown, attributed to a lack of economic data [2] - Morgan Stanley's G-10 FX strategist David Adams noted that the absence of labor market data allows investors to overlook potential trends related to structural hiring slowdowns [2] Group 2 - The latest non-farm payroll report before the government shutdown indicated a significant cooling in job growth, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021 [3] - Bloomberg macro strategist Brendan Fagan highlighted that the narrative around the labor market is softening, increasing the risk of a trap for yield-driven support [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ's Derek Halpenny expects a sell-off in the dollar once new data is released, indicating further weakness in the job market [3] Group 3 - According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., U.S. companies announced the highest number of layoffs for October in over two decades [4] - Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. lowered its earnings outlook for the third time this year, reflecting weak consumer spending as fewer diners eat out [4] - Halpenny predicts a significant sell-off in the dollar, particularly against the euro, with expectations that the euro could reach 1.20 against the dollar by year-end [4]