Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts FY2025 revenue of approximately 3.6 billion yuan, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, and a profit of 650 million yuan, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [1] Revenue Analysis - The decline in student enrollment at self-owned schools has led to a slowdown in revenue growth. In the first half of the year, revenue grew by 14%, while in the second half, the growth rate slowed to about 2.7%. This is attributed to the company's strict control over student recruitment, focusing only on high-ranking quality students, which has been impacted by demographic decline and economic downturn [1] - The profit in the first half of the year increased by 36%, but in the second half, it declined by 3.4%. This decline is mainly due to increased human resource costs for quality teachers, higher investments in AI, and rising food costs due to changes in meal plans and increased protein content [1] Future Outlook - The core business of high school enrollment is expected to slow down, impacting this year's revenue growth. However, the ongoing expansion in the high school sector and the company's focus on enhancing its reputation may benefit long-term quality improvement [1] - The high-margin tutoring business has made breakthroughs, with over 40 tutoring schools currently, indicating potential for gradual growth [1] - The company anticipates steady growth in competency-based education, with future penetration into tutoring school operations. Growth is expected in areas such as research and study tours, competitions, and supply chain services [1] - The AI business is progressing steadily, with commercial layouts and market promotions for AI series products like AI training camps, AI smart classrooms, and AI classrooms expected to provide new growth opportunities [1] Adjusted Financial Forecast - Due to lower-than-expected high school enrollment, the company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 from 3.771 billion/4.401 billion/5.143 billion yuan to 3.597 billion/3.937 billion/4.247 billion yuan. The net profit forecast has been revised down from 757 million/1.016 billion/1.329 billion yuan to 650 million/745 million/838 million yuan [1] - Corresponding adjustments to EPS for FY2025-2027 are from 0.36/0.48/0.63 yuan to 0.31/0.35/0.40 yuan [1] - The company's latest closing price (November 5, 2025) is 2.58 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 8/7/6X for FY2025-2027 [1]
天立国际控股(1773.HK)：招生下滑导致收入放缓 期待AI提供新增量