Core Insights - The company is a leading optical lens provider, focusing on both standard and customized optical lenses for downstream brands and end-users, with a projected revenue CAGR of 15% and profit CAGR of 33% from 2021 to 2024 [1] Industry Overview - The traditional lens industry is expected to reach a global retail value of $54.3 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.7% from 2019 to 2024 [1] - The domestic lens shipment volume is estimated at 940 million pairs annually, while global sales are around 1.7 billion pairs [1] - The AI glasses market is nascent, with an expected global sales volume of approximately 2.83 million units in 2024, representing a penetration rate of only 0.2% [2] - If the penetration rate of AI glasses increases to 10% over the next five years, sales could reach about 16 million units [2] Company Positioning - 康耐特光学 ranks second in global resin lens sales and fifth in sales value in 2024, being one of the few manufacturers capable of mass-producing high-refractive-index lenses [3] - The company has established strong relationships with international brand clients and has increased its high-end product and proprietary brand ratio, driving structural growth in revenue and profitability [3] - 康耐特光学 is a pioneer in the XR glasses lens sector, having secured exclusive supply agreements for lenses with major companies, including the upcoming Quark AI glasses from Alibaba [3] Financial Projections - The company anticipates net profits of 540 million, 660 million, and 830 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 25.6%, 22.1%, and 26.9% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.12, 1.37, and 1.74 RMB for the same years [3] - The estimated reasonable valuation for the company ranges from 56.22 to 61.84 RMB or 61.78 to 67.96 HKD [3]
康耐特光学(02276.HK)深度报告：镜片龙头开疆拓土 XR业务再拓成长空间