AI sets odds of Nvidia stock trading at $250 after Q3 earnings

Core Insights - Nvidia is set to announce its third-quarter earnings on November 19, with expectations of a strong report that could influence the AI market's direction [1] - The stock is currently valued at $188, having increased by 36% year-to-date, and there is speculation about whether it can reach its record high of $250 post-earnings [3][5] Financial Expectations - Nvidia management anticipates revenue of $54 billion for the quarter, representing a 54% increase year-over-year [2] - Projected gross margins are 73.3% under GAAP and 73.5% on a non-GAAP basis, with operating expenses estimated at $5.9 billion GAAP and $4.2 billion non-GAAP [2] - Wall Street analysts forecast adjusted EPS of $1.25, up from $0.81 in the previous year, and revenue of $54.77 billion, indicating a 56% year-over-year gain [2] Market Sentiment and Predictions - There is a 30% chance that Nvidia's stock could reach $250 post-earnings, contingent on a strong earnings beat and positive guidance [5] - Historical data shows Nvidia typically experiences a 20% to 30% surge in stock price after exceptional earnings beats, although guidance misses or supply chain issues could hinder gains [6] - A more conservative estimate suggests Nvidia may trade between $200 and $230 after earnings, with a 20% chance of flatlining or declining if results do not meet expectations [7]