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飞天茅台价格腰斩,市值蒸发万亿!高端白酒价格倒挂,行业要变天

Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor market, particularly the Moutai brand, is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices and market value plummeting, leading to a broader crisis in the industry [1][4]. Market Conditions - Moutai's bottle price has dropped below 1700 yuan, nearly halving from its peak in 2021, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1][4]. - The entire high-end liquor market is facing a price inversion, where selling more leads to greater losses for distributors, compounded by an inventory pressure of 900 days [1][4][3]. - The China Securities White Liquor Index has only increased by 10% since last September, indicating stagnation in the market [3]. Inventory and Sales Challenges - The inventory turnover days for the industry reached 900 days in the first half of 2025, a 10% year-on-year increase, suggesting that products are sitting in warehouses for over two and a half years [4][3]. - Distributors are hesitant to stock up during peak seasons due to the risk of further losses [4]. Changing Consumer Preferences - Young consumers are increasingly rejecting high-end liquor, with only 13% of 18 to 35-year-olds choosing liquor over other beverages [8][11]. - The trend is shifting towards lower-alcohol beverages, with the low-alcohol market projected to reach 75 billion yuan by 2025 [8][11]. Cultural Shifts - The perception of liquor among younger generations is negative, associating it with outdated drinking culture and forced social interactions [11][12]. - 72% of younger consumers have experienced pressure to drink liquor, leading to a cultural shift away from traditional drinking practices [12]. Health Consciousness - There is a growing emphasis on health, with many older consumers reducing their alcohol intake due to health issues, resulting in a decline in traditional liquor consumption [12][14]. - The narrative that liquor is beneficial for health has been debunked, further diminishing its appeal [12]. Industry Response - Liquor companies are attempting to adapt by introducing lower-alcohol products, but these efforts have not significantly resonated with younger consumers [8][9]. - The industry is urged to address issues related to taste, consumption scenarios, and cultural perceptions to remain relevant [15].