Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-11-09 03:46Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the recent 5% pullback in the US stock market is a typical year-end seasonal fluctuation within the AI cycle, rather than an unusual signal indicating the end of the upward trend [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Despite the market pullback, there remains potential for further gains before year-end, supported by seasonal factors, the early stage of the AI investment cycle, and relatively light institutional positioning [1][2] - Kapa anticipates a 5-10% increase in the market by year-end, driven by favorable seasonal factors and broad market participation [1][2] - Current cautious sentiment among institutional investors, who believe the market has peaked, may create opportunities for significant upward movement in the remaining trading days of the year [1][2] Group 2: AI Investment and Economic Impact - The core logic supporting continued market growth is based on the belief that the AI revolution is still in its early stages, with institutional investors yet to fully allocate to AI themes [2] - AI investments, while substantial in nominal terms, represent less than 1% of GDP, indicating a more moderate impact compared to historical infrastructure investment peaks [5] Group 3: Valuation and Positioning - Current market valuations and investor positioning are still below historical highs, providing potential support for future market performance [6] - The Nasdaq 100 index is trading at a 46% discount compared to the internet bubble period, suggesting that earnings are supporting valuations [6] - Investor positioning has shifted to a "light" state, indicating that there is significant capital waiting to enter the market once sentiment turns positive [6]